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An external validation study of the Utah Bleeding Risk Score
Armin Peivandi1, Henryk Welp1, Mirela Scherer1
1Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University Hospital Muenster, Muenster, Germany.
Insights
The Utah Bleeding Risk Score (UBRS) could not predict gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in continuous-flow left ventricular assist device (CF-LVAD) patients. Coronary artery disease may increase GIB risk during CF-LVAD support.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Gastroenterology
- Medical Devices
Background:
- Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a significant complication in patients with continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices (CF-LVAD).
- The Utah Bleeding Risk Score (UBRS) was developed to predict GIB in CF-LVAD patients.
Purpose of the Study:
- To externally validate the predictive ability of the UBRS in a cohort of CF-LVAD patients.
- To assess the applicability of the UBRS for predicting GIB in this population.
Main Methods:
- The UBRS was calculated for 111 CF-LVAD patients.
- GIB events were summarized, and patients were stratified into risk groups.
- Predictive ability was examined using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis at 3 years and during the entire support period.
Main Results:
- The UBRS showed poor predictive ability (AUC < 0.52) for GIB at 3 years and during the whole support time.
- No significant difference in UBRS was observed between patients with and without GIB.
- Coronary artery disease was associated with an increased risk of GIB beyond the third year of support.
Conclusions:
- The UBRS is not applicable for predicting GIB in this cohort of CF-LVAD patients.
- Coronary artery disease may be a risk factor for GIB in CF-LVAD patients.
- Further validation in a larger cohort is recommended.
Objectives:
Gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices (CF-LVAD) impairs quality of life and increases hospitalization rate. The Utah Bleeding Risk Score (UBRS) has been created to predict gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in patients on left ventricular assist device. We here aimed to externally validate UBRS on our cohort of CF-LVAD patients.
Methods:
Utah Bleeding Risk Score was calculated, GIB events summarized on follow-up and patients stratified into 3 risk groups. Predictive ability of UBRS was examined at 3 years and during whole support time and person time incidence rates correlated to UBRS. In a sub-analysis, single effects of UBRS variables on freedom from GIB were assessed.
Results:
A total of 111 CF-LVAD patients were included. The median UBRS was 2 (3-1). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.519 (P = 0.758, 95% confidence interval = 0.422-0.615) at 3 years and an area under the curve of 0.515 (P = 0.797, 95% confidence interval = 0.418-0.611) during whole support time. No significant difference was observed in UBRS between bleeders and non-bleeders (P = 0.80). No significant difference in freedom from GIB was observed (P3 years = 0.7; Psupport-time = 0.816) and no independent significance regarding the freedom from bleeding at 3 years for any variable was observed. Coronary artery disease was associated with higher risk of GIB beyond the 3rd year (P = 0.048).
Conclusions:
UBRS was not able to predict GIB and therefore not applicable in our cohort of patients. Coronary artery disease could lead to a higher risk for GIB during support time. An additional validation in a larger cohort is advisable.
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