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Variability, Mean, and Baseline Values of Metabolic Parameters in Predicting Risk of Type 2 Diabetes
Duong Duc Pham1, Jaekyung Song1, Yunwan Jeon1
1Department of Physiology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Songpa-gu, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea.
The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism
|January 13, 2022
Summary
Metabolic parameter variability and mean values, especially postload plasma glucose, are key predictors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) development. Interactions between metabolic factors significantly influence T2DM risk.
Area of Science:
- Metabolic health and diabetes research
- Epidemiology of chronic diseases
- Biomarker discovery for T2DM
Background:
- The role of baseline and changes in metabolic parameters (MPs) on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk is not fully understood.
- Investigating the impact of past metabolic parameter variability and mean values, alongside their interactions, is crucial for predicting T2DM.
- Existing research has not systematically explored the combined influence of metabolic parameter dynamics and interrelations on T2DM incidence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the association between past variability (V), past mean (M), and baseline (B) values of metabolic parameters (MPs).
- To assess the predictive power of these metabolic parameter characteristics and their interactions for T2DM risk.
- To investigate the influence of different metabolic parameter indices and their interrelationships on the development of T2DM.
Main Methods:
- A longitudinal, community-based study using the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study dataset.
- Inclusion of 3829 non-diabetic participants with metabolic parameter measurements over three biannual visits.
- Follow-up for 10 years to record the incidence of T2DM.
Main Results:
- Plasma glucose (PG) concentrations, particularly postload values, were the strongest determinants of T2DM.
- The mean (M) of average fasting PG (FPG), 1-hour, and 2-hour PGs demonstrated the highest discriminative power (AUC: 0.82).
- Mean (M) values of MPs were more predictive of T2DM than baseline (B) or variability (V) values, with significant interactions noted, especially between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and FPG.
Conclusions:
- Postload plasma glucose levels and past alterations in metabolic parameters are significant risk factors for T2DM.
- Mutual interactions among metabolic parameter indices play a crucial role in T2DM development.
- Understanding metabolic parameter dynamics and their interrelations offers valuable insights for T2DM risk prediction.
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