Predictive modeling of contents of potentially toxic elements using morphometric data, proximal sensing, and chemical...

Several anthropic activities, especially mining, have contributed to the exacerbation of contents of potentially toxic elements in soils around the world. Mines can release a large amount of direct sources of contaminants into the environment, and even after the mines are no longer being exploited, the environmental liabilities generated may continue to provide contamination risks. Potentially toxic elements (PTEs), when present in the environment, can enter the food chain, promoting serious risks to human health and the ecosystem. Several methods have been used to determine the contents of PTEs in soils, but most are laborious, costly and generate waste. In this study, we use a methodological framework to optimize the prediction of levels of PTEs in soils. We used a total set of 120 soil samples, collected at a depth of 0-10 cm. The covariate database is composed of variables measured by proximal sensors, physical and chemical soil characteristics, and morphometric data derived from a DEM with a spatial resolution of 30 m. Five machine learning algorithms were tested: Random Forests, Cubist, Linear Model, Support Vector Machine and K Nearest Neighbor. In general, the Cubist algorithm produced better results in predicting the contents of Pb, Zn, Ba and Fe compared to the other tested models. For the Al contents, the Support Vector Machine produced the best prediction. For the Cr contents, all models showed low predictive power. The most important covariates in predicting the contents of PTEs varied according to the studied element. However, x-ray fluorescence measurements, textural and morphometric variables stood out for all elements. The methodology structure reported in this study represents an alternative for fast, low-cost prediction of PTEs in soils, in addition to being efficient and economical for monitoring potentially contaminated areas and obtaining quality reference values for soils.