Multiple myeloma in Lebanon: Trend analysis, 10-year projections and comparisons to other countries

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a common hematological malignancy in aging populations. This study aims to inspect the trends from 2005 to 2016 and future projections of MM in Lebanon and to compare its incidence-rates to other MENA and non-MENA countries.

The data concerning MM cases over the studied period was extracted from the National Cancer Registry (NCR) of Lebanon. The online database "Cancer Incidence in Five Continents" was screened and data of other countries were collected. The age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR(w)) were computed and analyzed using Joinpoint regression. 10 year projections were predicted by employing a logarithmic model.

During the time period 2005-2016, MM was significantly more common in males. Both genders had a cancer peak in patients older than 75 years. MM demonstrated a significantly increasing trend in both genders over the 12 years of study. Compared to other countries in the MENA region, Lebanon ranked first in females and second in males, while it came among the lowest when compared to randomly selected developed countries from non-MENA regions. Projecting to 2026, incidence rates of MM in Lebanon are expected to rise in both males and females.

Incidence of MM in Lebanon is continually rising. The elderly population, especially males, is much more affected than the younger one. Different risk factors, specifically obesity and toxic exposures, can explain the escalating burden of MM among the population. A collaboration of efforts between the government and health organization is expected for an effective disease control.