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Purposes and duties in scientific modelling.
Eric Winsberg1, Stephanie Harvard2
1Department of Philosophy, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, USA winsberg@usf.edu.
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
|January 14, 2022
Summary
Clarifying the purpose of epidemiological models is a moral-epistemic duty. Understanding their value-laden nature and potential impact on policy decisions is crucial for ethical public health guidance.
Area of Science:
- Philosophy of Science
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Ethics
Background:
- Growing public and academic interest in the philosophical underpinnings of epidemiological models.
- Concerns regarding the influence of social, ethical values, and the adequacy of models for policy decisions.
- Debates on the fundamental nature and intended purposes of epidemiological models, such as prediction versus projection.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the philosophical questions surrounding epidemiological models, particularly their intended purposes.
- To argue for the moral-epistemic duties associated with clarifying model objectives and assessing their adequacy.
- To contextualize these arguments within broader philosophical discussions on modeling.
Main Methods:
- Philosophical analysis and argumentation.
- Review of recent philosophical literature on epidemiological models.
- Ethical and epistemic evaluation of model purposes and applications.
Main Results:
- Clarifying the intended purpose of an epidemiological model is identified as a moral-epistemic duty.
- Models possess inherent value-laden characteristics with potential for downstream harms.
- The use of models in political decision-making can conflict with liberal values.
Conclusions:
- Assessing model adequacy for its stated purpose is a moral-epistemic responsibility.
- The inherent value-ladenness of models necessitates careful consideration of their ethical implications.
- Increased dialogue on the moral significance of modeling is vital for maintaining democratic scrutiny in public health.
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