Optimizing renewable-based energy supply options for power generation in Ethiopia

Area of Science:

• Energy Systems Analysis
• Renewable Energy Planning
• Economic Development Modeling

Background:

• Ethiopia's economic reform agenda targets lower-middle income by 2030, progressing to higher-middle income by 2050.
• Achieving these economic goals necessitates substantial expansion of power generation capacity and strategic energy mix planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To determine the optimal renewable energy mix for Ethiopia's power sector.
• To estimate the investment costs required to meet projected electricity demand aligned with economic development targets.
• To evaluate energy strategies under different economic scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Open Source energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS).
• Analyzed two economic scenarios: business as usual and the homegrown reform agenda.
• Modeled power capacity expansion, energy mix evolution, and investment requirements.

Main Results:

• Projected power demand under the reform scenario requires capacity expansion to 31.22GW (2030), 112.45GW (2040), and 334.27GW (2050).
• The energy mix will remain hydropower-dominated but shift towards solar and wind by 2050 for cost-efficiency.
• Estimated investment needs are $70 billion (2021-2030) and $750 billion (2031-2050).

Conclusions:

• Ethiopia possesses sufficient renewable energy potential to meet its economic objectives.
• Significant investment and financial sourcing are critical challenges for realizing the energy-driven economic growth.
• Findings support informed decision-making for Ethiopia's socio-economic development and investment strategies.