Does agriculture-induced environmental Kuznets curve exist in developing countries?

Area of Science:

• Environmental Economics
• Development Economics
• Agricultural Economics

Background:

• Economic growth and increased agricultural production can lead to environmental degradation.
• The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis suggests environmental impact initially rises with income, then falls.
• The specific impact of agriculture on environmental quality within the EKC framework requires further investigation, particularly in developing nations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the agriculture-induced Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in 47 developing countries.
• To analyze the long-term relationship between income, agricultural production, and CO2 emissions.
• To provide empirical evidence for policymakers regarding sustainable agricultural development.

Main Methods:

• Dynamic panel data estimators were employed, including Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS).
• A Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator was used for robustness checks.
• The study analyzed data from 47 developing countries spanning the period 1976-2017.

Main Results:

• A long-run inverted U-shaped relationship was found between income and CO2 emissions, supporting the EKC hypothesis.
• Agricultural production was found to have a significant negative impact on environmental quality.
• The PMG estimator confirmed the long-run findings of DOLS and FMOLS, supporting the agriculture-induced EKC in developing countries.

Conclusions:

• The study confirms the existence of an agriculture-induced EKC in developing countries.
• Findings suggest that while economic growth may eventually reduce emissions, agricultural expansion currently degrades environmental quality.
• Policymakers are urged to reassess agricultural sector infrastructure to promote sustainable development and mitigate environmental costs.