Explaining land use and forest change: more theory or better methodology?

Area of Science:

• Environmental Social Science
• Human-Environment Interactions
• Causal Analysis Methodology

Background:

• Theorizing complex human-environment relationships is challenging and often lacks explanatory power.
• Understanding causal interactions between people and land requires improved causal-analytic methodology.
• A focus on theory alone may not adequately explain environmental changes.

Purpose of the Study:

• Introduce Abductive Causal Eventism (ACE), a causal-historical analysis research methodology.
• Advocate for the adoption of ACE by social scientists and environmental change researchers.
• Present ACE as a superior alternative to theory-focused approaches for studying environmental phenomena.

Main Methods:

• Description of the Abductive Causal Eventism (ACE) methodology.
• Application of ACE illustrated through case study research on land use change and reforestation in Saint Lucia.
• Findings linked to existing literature on forest transitions (FTs).

Main Results:

• Forest transitions (FTs) are understood as outcomes of diverse causal pathways and contingent events, challenging earlier theoretical attempts.
• Recent FT in Saint Lucia resulted from a complex interplay of various causal influences.
• Evidence suggests that forest transitions have occurred in Saint Lucia previously, highlighting historical contingency.

Conclusions:

• Findings caution against premature theorizing and policy formulation in environmental change research.
• Abductive Causal Eventism (ACE) offers an adaptable methodological approach suitable for diverse and evolving contexts.
• ACE effectively accounts for both general and contingent causes, leading to more robust theories and policies.