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Spatiotemporal patterns of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico at the municipality level

Jean-François Mas1, Azucena Pérez-Vega2

  • 1Laboratorio de análisis espacial, Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico.

Peerj
|January 17, 2022
PubMed

Insights

The COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico showed evolving spatial and temporal clusters. A gravitational model best predicted new infections between municipalities, offering insights for epidemic control.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Spatial Analysis
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has severely impacted global health systems.
  • Mexico faced significant challenges, exceeding 3.7 million cases and 285,000 deaths by October 2021.
  • Understanding epidemic spread is crucial for effective public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico.
  • To identify and characterize disease clusters and their evolution.
  • To evaluate different models for predicting inter-municipality COVID-19 transmission.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized georeferenced COVID-19 confirmed cases at the municipality level.
  • Computed weekly Moran's I index to assess spatial autocorrelation.
  • Employed a flexibly shaped spatial scan approach to detect disease clusters.
  • Compared Euclidean, cost, resistance, and gravitational distance models for contagion prediction.

Main Results:

  • COVID-19 in Mexico exhibited distinct spatio-temporal clusters, functioning as parallel epidemics.
  • The gravitational distance model demonstrated the highest accuracy in predicting newly infected municipalities.
  • Predictive power of the gravitational model was moderate and fluctuated over time.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides a comprehensive understanding of COVID-19 spread dynamics across Mexico.
  • Findings highlight the importance of spatial analysis in tracking and managing epidemics.
  • The gravitational model offers a valuable tool for predicting inter-municipality contagion, aiding future epidemic response strategies.
Keywords:
COVID-19ClusterContagion patternsGISMoran’s indexSARS-CoV-2 pandemicSpatial analysisSpatial scan

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