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Published on: November 5, 2021
Omicron: a mysterious variant of concern
A Gowrisankar1, T M C Priyanka1, Santo Banerjee2
1Department of Mathematics, School of Advanced Sciences, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, Tamil Nadu 632 014 India.
Abstract:
Omicron (B.1.1.529), a highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 variant, has emerged in the south of African continent in the November 2021. The spike protein of Omicron has 26 amino acid mutations, which makes it distinct from the other variants of concern. Researches are underway to know the virulence and transmission rate of Omicron variant. In this letter, the seven-day moving average of most affected Omicron variant countries Denmark, Germany, India, Netherlands, South Africa and UK has been investigated and compared with each other. Further, the seven-day average of daily positive Omicron cases of the prescribed countries has been predicted for the months of December 2021, January 2022 and February 2022 using the fractal interpolation method. Results elucidate that the curve of daily positive case follows the same pattern even though the new variant of concern, Omicron added in the existing variants.
Insights
The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2021. Analysis shows Omicron cases followed existing patterns, despite its unique mutations.
Area of Science:
- Virology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- The Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of SARS-CoV-2, characterized by 26 spike protein mutations, emerged in November 2021.
- Its distinct genetic makeup raised concerns regarding virulence and transmission rates, necessitating further research.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate and compare the seven-day moving average of COVID-19 cases in key Omicron-affected countries.
- To predict the seven-day average of daily positive Omicron cases for December 2021, January 2022, and February 2022.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of seven-day moving averages of COVID-19 cases.
- Fractal interpolation method for case prediction.
Main Results:
- The study compared Omicron variant case trends in Denmark, Germany, India, Netherlands, South Africa, and the UK.
- Predictions indicated that daily positive case curves maintained their established patterns despite the Omicron variant's emergence.
Conclusions:
- The Omicron variant's emergence did not significantly alter the overall pattern of daily positive COVID-19 cases in the studied countries.
- Further research is needed to fully understand the long-term epidemiological impact of the Omicron variant.
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