A Novel Method for Studying the Effect of Older Brothers on Sexual Orientation and Its Robustness to Stopping Rule Distortions

In a recent article, Ablaza, Kabátek, and Perales describe a novel statistical methodology for studying the relation between sibship composition and sexual orientation, and they report the results of applying that methodology to a fresh sample. Research conducted for this commentary investigated whether Ablaza et al.'s method would be robust to the distorting effect of stopping rules, that is, quasi-rules that parents follow in deciding whether to have another child. Results obtained with an archived sample in which stopping rule distortion was known to be present indicated that their method probably is not robust to this particular problem. On another topic, it is argued that Ablaza et al.'s finding that older brothers increased the odds of homosexuality in women needs to be confirmed with further research, because past studies have been inconsistent in this regard. It is further argued that, even if an effect of older brothers on women's sexual orientation is confirmed, this would not necessarily falsify the hypothesis that maternal immunization underlies the effect of older brothers on men's sexual orientation. That hypothesis would need to be extended but not necessarily abandoned.