Rising Circulating Tumor DNA As a Molecular Biomarker of Early Disease Progression in Metastatic Breast Cancer

Accurate monitoring of therapeutic response remains an important unmet need for patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Analysis of tumor genomics obtained via circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) can provide a comprehensive overview of tumor evolution. Here, we evaluated ctDNA change as an early prognostic biomarker of subsequent radiologic progression and survival in MBC.

Paired blood samples from patients with MBC were analyzed for levels of ctDNA, carcinoembryonic antigen, and cancer antigen 15-3 at baseline and during treatment. A Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments-certified sequencing panel of 73 genes was used to quantify tumor-specific point mutations in ctDNA. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the association between ctDNA rise from baseline to during-treatment (genomic progression) and subsequent radiologic progression and progression-free survival (PFS).

Somatic mutations were detected in 76 baseline samples (90.5%) and 71 during-treatment samples (84.5%). Patients with genomic progression were more than twice as likely to have subsequent radiologic progression (odds ratio, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.74 to 2.41; P < .0001), with a mean lead time of 5.8 weeks. Genomic assessment provided a high positive predictive value of 81.8% and a negative predictive value of 89.7%. The subset of patients with genomic progression also had shorter PFS (median, 4.2 v 8.3 months; hazard ratio, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.75 to 5.04; log-rank P < .0001) compared with those without genomic progression.

Genomic progression, as assessed by early rise in ctDNA, is an independent biomarker of disease progression before overt radiologic or clinical progression becomes evident in patients with MBC.