Prognostic laboratory score to predict 14-day mortality in terminally ill patients with respiratory malignancy

Some studies have developed a scoring system to determine the short-term survival of patients with respiratory malignancy.

A total of 649 terminally ill patients with respiratory malignancy admitted to our palliative care unit were included in this study. They were randomly divided into the investigation (n = 390) and validation (n = 259) groups. Nineteen blood parameters were analyzed in the laboratory. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was performed for each blood factor and the area under the curve was calculated to determine the predictive value for 14-day survival after the blood test. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the significant independent prognostic factors for 14-day mortality. To develop a scoring system, the laboratory prognostic score for respiratory malignancy (R-LPS) was calculated using the sum of the indices of the independent prognostic factors.

Multivariable analysis showed that 8 out of 19 indices, namely, C-reactive protein ≥ 6.8 mg/dL, aspartate aminotransferase ≥ 43 U/L, blood urea nitrogen ≥ 22 mg/dL, white blood cell count ≥ 10.9 × 10³/μL, eosinophil percentage ≤ 0.4%, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥ 12.0, red cell distribution width ≥ 16.8, and platelet count ≤ 168 × 10³/μL were significant independent factors for 14-day survival in patients with respiratory malignancy. The R-LPS 3 showed acceptable accuracy for 14-day mortality in both the investigation and validation groups and predicted death within 14 days with 75-82% sensitivity and 59-62% specificity.

The R-LPS developed from eight laboratory indices showed acceptable prognostic ability for terminally ill patients with respiratory malignancy.