[A nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer]

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Gastroenterology
• Surgical Pathology

Background:

• Early gastric cancer (EGC) risk stratification is crucial for treatment decisions.
• Lymph node metastasis (LNM) is a primary determinant of prognosis in EGC.
• Accurate prediction of LNM aids in personalized treatment strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in early gastric cancer (EGC).
• To develop and validate a nomogram prediction model for LNM in EGC.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective cohort study including 1633 patients (training set) and 239 patients (external validation set).
• Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify risk factors.
• Nomogram construction and validation using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots.

Main Results:

• Multivariate analysis identified female sex, ulcer-type tumor morphology, vascular invasion, lymphatic cancer thrombus, tumor length ≥3 cm, deeper mucosal invasion, and poor differentiation as independent risk factors for LNM.
• The nomogram demonstrated good predictive performance with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.818 in the training set and 0.765 in the validation set.

Conclusions:

• Several clinicopathological factors are significantly associated with LNM in EGC.
• The developed nomogram model offers valuable diagnostic utility for predicting LNM in EGC.
• This model can assist clinicians in selecting appropriate treatment strategies for EGC patients.