Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance and quantile regression for determinants of underutilisation in at-risk...

While clinical guidelines recommend hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance for at-risk individuals, reported surveillance rates in the United States and Europe remain disappointingly low.

To quantify HCC surveillance in an Australian cohort, and assess for factors associated with surveillance underutilisation.

All patients undergoing HCC surveillance liver ultrasounds between January 1, 2018 to June 30, 2018 at a tertiary hospital in Melbourne, Australia, were followed until July 31, 2020, or when surveillance was no longer required. The primary outcome was the percentage of time up-to-date with HCC surveillance (PTUDS). Quantile regression was performed to determine the impact of factors associated with HCC surveillance underutilisation.

Among 775 at-risk patients followed up for a median of 27.5 months, the median PTUDS was 84.2% (IQR: 66.3%-96.3%). 85.0% of patients were followed up by specialist gastroenterologists. Amongst those receiving specialist care, quantile regression demonstrated differential associations at various quantile levels of PTUDS for several factors. Older age at the 25^th quantile (estimate 0.002 per percent, P = 0.03), and cirrhotic status at the 75^th quantile (estimate 0.021, P = 0.017), were significantly associated with greater percentage of time up-to-date. African ethnicity (estimate -0.089, P = 0.048) and a culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) background (estimate -0.063, P = 0.01) were significantly associated with lower PTUDS at the 50^th quantile, and again for CALD at the 75^th quantile (estimate -0.026, P = 0.045).

While median PTUDS in this Australian cohort study was 84.2%, awareness of the impact of specific factors across PTUDS quantiles can aid targeted interventions towards improved HCC surveillance.