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Differential word expression analyses highlight plague dynamics during the second pandemic.

Rémi Barbieri1,2,3, Riccardo Nodari4, Michel Signoli2

  • 1Aix Marseille Univ., IRD, MEPHI, IHU Méditerranée Infection, Marseille 13005, France.

Royal Society Open Science
|January 24, 2022
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Summary

Bioinformatic analysis of historical texts reveals plague keywords like "buboes" and "carbuncles," indicating ectoparasite transmission. This method aids in verifying plague records and understanding historical outbreaks of *Yersinia pestis*.

Keywords:
Yersinia pestishistorylexicometryplaguesecond pandemicsource

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Area of Science:

  • Historical epidemiology
  • Bioinformatics
  • Textual analysis

Background:

  • Second plague pandemic research relies on text exegesis, prone to bias.
  • Bioinformatic tools can offer quantitative analysis of historical texts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a quantitative lexicographical method for analyzing plague-related historical texts.
  • To identify key terms associated with plague outbreaks and their transmission routes.

Main Methods:

  • Quantitative lexicography applied to 32 plague texts and control texts.
  • Bioinformatic analyses including nested, network, and category analyses.
  • Identification of overrepresented terms in plague-related texts.

Main Results:

  • "Buboes" and "carbuncles" were significantly associated with plague, suggesting ectoparasite transmission.
  • Plague-related terms linked to "merchandise," "movable," "tatters," "bed," and "clothes," indicating transmission vectors.
  • The method validated historical plague records and highlighted outbreak specificities.

Conclusions:

  • Quantitative textual analysis using bioinformatics provides a robust method for studying historical pandemics.
  • This approach can help identify the transmission routes and sources of *Yersinia pestis* in past outbreaks.
  • The findings enhance the understanding of the second plague pandemic in Europe.