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Author Spotlight: Advancements in Multiplex Detection of Respiratory Viruses

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Published on: November 10, 2023

Optimal control and comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis for COVID-19.

Joshua Kiddy K Asamoah^1,2, Eric Okyere³, Afeez Abidemi⁴

¹Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, China.

Results in Physics

|January 24, 2022

Summary

This study analyzed COVID-19 control strategies in Saudi Arabia, finding social distancing most cost-effective without vaccines. Other strategies also showed effectiveness in averting infections.

Keywords:

Control strategies Cost minimizing analysis Economic health outcomes Existence of optimal control

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Public Health
Health Economics

Background:

COVID-19 pandemic necessitates understanding cost-effectiveness of control measures.
Previous models for Saudi Arabia did not capture multiple waves.
Economic and health outcomes of interventions require detailed analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

To formulate a non-autonomous nonlinear deterministic model for COVID-19 control in Saudi Arabia.
To analyze cost-effectiveness of various control strategies.
To identify optimal interventions for managing the COVID-19 pandemic.

Main Methods:

Developed a non-autonomous nonlinear deterministic model for COVID-19.
Applied Pontryagin's maximum principle to derive an optimal control system.
Performed numerical simulations for cost-effectiveness analysis of fourteen strategies.

Main Results:

The strength number indicated the model's limitation in capturing multiple COVID-19 waves.
Social distancing (Strategy 1) emerged as the most cost-saving and effective intervention without vaccination.
Strategies 6, 11, 12, and 14 were equally effective in averting infections.

Conclusions:

A new compartmental model may be needed for Saudi Arabia to capture multiple COVID-19 waves.
Social distancing is a highly effective and economical COVID-19 control strategy.
Multiple strategies demonstrate significant potential for infection control.