Global Health Impacts for Economic Models of Climate Change: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Climate Economics
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Climate change mitigation policies are driven by the need to reduce health damages.
• Current economic assessments of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policies often lack sufficient health expert input.
• Improving the estimation of health impacts in economic-climate models is crucial for accurate policy assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To systematically review and meta-analyze health impacts of climate change.
• To provide recommendations for improving the estimation of health impacts in economic-climate models.
• To integrate health expert insights into the social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHG) framework.

Main Methods:

• A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on temperature increases and all-cause mortality risk.
• Regionally resolved effect estimates were generated using random-effects pooling.
• An expert panel of health researchers and climate economists convened to analyze findings.

Main Results:

• Net increases in all-cause mortality risk were estimated for all global regions with rising average annual temperatures (0.1% to 1.1% per 1°C).
• Effect estimates and uncertainties varied significantly by global region.
• Key recommendations include diversifying methodologies, incorporating cause-specific mortality, refining climate parameters, and accounting for socioeconomic and adaptation factors.

Conclusions:

• Subject-matter experts and climate economists can collaborate to enhance SC-GHG estimates.
• Improved health impact assessments are vital for effective climate change mitigation policies.
• The study provides a framework for integrating health expertise into economic-climate modeling.