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Statistical bounds on how induced seismicity stops.

Ryan Schultz1, William L Ellsworth2, Gregory C Beroza2

  • 1Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. rjs10@stanford.edu.

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|January 25, 2022
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Induced seismicity, earthquakes from human activities, follows Båth's law, predicting magnitude differences. This law helps quantify earthquake behavior after operations like hydraulic fracturing cease.

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Area of Science:

  • Geophysics and seismology, focusing on induced seismicity.
  • Statistical analysis of earthquake sequences.

Background:

  • Human activities like hydraulic fracturing and enhanced geothermal systems can trigger earthquakes (induced seismicity).
  • Earthquakes continuing after the human activity stops pose risks and challenges for management.
  • Understanding the cessation patterns of induced seismicity is crucial for risk assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To statistically examine how induced seismicity sequences terminate.
  • To test the applicability of Båth's law, originally from tectonic aftershocks, to induced seismicity.

Main Methods:

  • Statistical analysis of approximately 80 cases of induced seismicity from fluid injection operations.
  • Application of Båth's law, which relates magnitude differences to population count ratios.
  • Examination of the magnitude-count-ratio relationship and power law distribution of residuals.

Main Results:

  • Induced seismicity sequences were found to obey Båth's law.
  • Both the magnitude-count-ratio relationship and the power law distribution of residuals align with Båth's law predictions.
  • The distribution of count ratios is skewed and heavy-tailed, with most seismicity occurring during active operations.

Conclusions:

  • Båth's law effectively quantifies earthquake magnitudes that occur after anthropogenic operations have ended.
  • The findings provide a framework for understanding and managing the risks associated with trailing seismicity.
  • A proposed Seismogenic Fault Injection Test could help measure key parameters in situ.