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Schools opening and Covid-19 diffusion: Evidence from geolocalized microdata.
Emanuele Amodio1, Michele Battisti2,3, Andros Kourtellos4
1Department of Health, Promotion, Mother and Child Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties, University of Palermo, Piazza delle Cliniche, 2, 90127 Palermo, Italy.
European Economic Review
|January 25, 2022
Summary
School reopenings significantly increased COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) transmission rates by 2.5-3.7%. This suggests that educational institutions played a notable role in the spread of the virus.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Socioeconomics
Background:
- The debate on school closures' impact on COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) diffusion versus economic and human capital costs is ongoing.
- Disentangling the link between schooling and virus transmission is challenging due to confounding factors like climate and policy restrictions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of school opening on the surge of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) cases.
- To provide empirical evidence on the relationship between educational activities and virus transmission.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a weekly panel of geocoded COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) cases in Sicilian census areas.
- Combined case data with unique school opening data, exploiting spatial and temporal variations in school opening dates.
- Employed statistical analysis to identify the effect of early school openings on COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) case growth rates.
Main Results:
- Census areas with earlier school openings showed a significant 2.5-3.7% increase in the COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) case growth rate.
- The findings remained consistent after controlling for factors like teacher numbers, prior cases, and student demographics.
- Observed diminished effects in densely populated areas, younger populations, and smaller class sizes.
Conclusions:
- School reopening was associated with a substantial increase in COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) transmission, contributing to approximately one-third of new cases.
- The findings underscore the complex interplay between educational policies and public health outcomes during a pandemic.
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