The dependence of hydropower planning in relation to the influence of climate in Northeast Brazil
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Updated: Oct 5, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Nicorray de Queiroz Santos1, Kellen Carla Lima1, Maria Helena Constantino Spyrides1
1Postgraduate Program in Climate Science, Center for Exact and Earth Sciences, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.
Abstract:
Water scarcity in Northeast Brazil has caused latent perturbations in hydropower generation, which is undesirable for Energy Planning. Thus, this study aims to identify the influence of climate on hydropower generation by Sobradinho Dam in Bahia by: (i) assessing the streamflow climatology (1964-2017) and rainfall (1964-2015) through time series analysis, hypothesis testing and cluster analysis; (ii) assessing hydropower generation (2000-2017) using climate and energy data, through principal component analysis and dynamic regression models. The results indicated reductions of up to 30% in the mean climatological streamflow patterns; and reductions in rainfall amounts of 22.9%, 13.3% and 12.4% at latitudes 9°, 12°and 13°South, respectively. Decreasing trends were found in simulations of hydropower generation under the influence of different climate variables. Thus, the hydroelectric system operates in contingency, due to the growing energy load demand resulting in more energy imports in Northeast Brazil.
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