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The hot hand in the wild.
Konstantinos Pelechrinis1, Wayne Winston2
1Department of Informatics and Networked Systems, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, United States of America.
Plos One
|January 25, 2022
Summary
The "hot hand" effect in basketball is real for individual players, who can achieve streaks of success beyond chance. However, the average player shows shooting regression after consecutive makes.
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Behavioral Economics
- Statistical Analysis
Background:
- The "hot hand" phenomenon, suggesting streaks of success, has been debated.
- Existing research often lacks real-world applicability, studying scenarios in isolation.
- Quantifying streaks beyond chance in natural environments remains a challenge.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a framework for quantifying streaks of success in a natural environment.
- To investigate the existence and extent of the "hot hand" effect in basketball.
- To analyze shooting performance beyond random chance in game situations.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of in-game basketball situations.
- Development of a statistical framework to quantify streaks.
Main Results:
- Individual players demonstrate the "hot hand" effect, achieving success streaks beyond random probability.
- On average, players exhibit shooting regression, performing below expectations after consecutive successful shots.
- The degree of the "hot hand" varies among individual players.
Conclusions:
- The "hot hand" effect is statistically evident in individual basketball players within natural game settings.
- While individuals can have streaks, the average player's performance tends to regress.
- This research provides a framework for studying the "hot hand" outside controlled environments, impacting decision-making analysis.