Does industrial transfer policy mitigate carbon emissions? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

In this paper, we identify the causal effects of the industrial transfer policy (ITP) on carbon emissions. Specifically, we treat the demonstration zones of undertaking industrial transfer in China as a quasi-natural experiment and evaluation its carbon mitigation effects using the difference-in-differences (DID) and matching DID strategies. Our findings suggest that the ITP exerts a significant negative impact on carbon emissions. In particular, both the DID and matching DID estimates indicate that the ITP leads to mitigate carbon emissions by approximately 4.9 and 4.7 million tons, respectively. We also investigate the heterogeneous carbon mitigation effects of the ITP. Moreover, various checks and falsification tests are also presented to confirm the causal effects, including the placebo test, concurrent events test, alternative measures of the ITP and carbon emissions, alternative estimation method and matching technique. The results indicate that our key conclusion, the carbon mitigation effect of the ITP is robust. These results indicate that policymakers should seize the carbon mitigation dividend of the ITP to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. Policymakers should also reduce the regional development differences, improve the level of opening to the outside world, strengthen the construction of green demonstration zones for industrial transfer to mitigate carbon emissions.