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Updated: Oct 5, 2025
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The HoneyComb Paradigm for Research on Collective Human Behavior
Published on: January 19, 2019
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Understanding peace through the world news.
Vasiliki Voukelatou1,2, Ioanna Miliou3, Fosca Giannotti1,2
1Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa, Italy.
EPJ Data Science
|January 26, 2022
Summary
News media attention from the Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) database can predict the Global Peace Index (GPI) monthly. This study uses machine learning to measure peace and identify key predictive factors.
Area of Science:
- Utilizes computational social science and data science methodologies for peace research.
- Integrates digital data streams with traditional peace metrics.
Background:
- Accurate measurement of peace is crucial for well-being, equity, and violence reduction.
- Traditional peace metrics are being augmented by novel digital data sources.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the utility of the Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) database as a proxy for measuring the Global Peace Index (GPI).
- To apply predictive machine learning models for monthly GPI estimation.
- To employ explainable AI to identify key drivers of peace predictions.
Main Methods:
- Leveraged the Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) database.
- Applied predictive machine learning models to news media data.
- Utilized explainable AI techniques for variable importance and error analysis.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated that news media attention from GDELT can serve as a reliable proxy for measuring the Global Peace Index (GPI) on a monthly basis.
- Identified key variables driving the machine learning predictions for GPI.
- Provided country-specific insights into prediction drivers and error sources.
Conclusions:
- Digital data, particularly news media attention captured by GDELT, offers a powerful tool for real-time peace measurement.
- Machine learning and explainable AI can enhance our understanding of peace dynamics and inform policy.
- This approach can contribute to maximizing societal benefits and minimizing risks to global peace.
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