What is the effect of school closures on learning in Canada? A hypothesis informed by international data

Canadian lockdown response to the COVID-19 pandemic has included province-wide school shutdowns and frequent individual school closures to contain outbreaks. A number of scientists and political figures have shared their concerns about the medium- and long-term effects of school closures/shutdowns on student academic achievement, learning loss, and learning gaps. Unfortunately, there are no pan-Canadian studies to date to help define the scope of the problem. In this commentary, we report the results of a number of longitudinal research studies conducted in the Netherlands, Belgium, England, and the United States. Using these studies as a basis for comparison, we extrapolated a "Canadian" hypothesis on the unintended academic consequences of school closures, keeping in mind the unique nature of each province. We continue with recommendations on the types of research required to validate this hypothesis, and conclude with implications on public health and education should learning loss and gaps prove true.