Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on ex-vessel prices using time-series analysis

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and subsequent lockdown measures have impacted economies and industries worldwide. The fisheries industry witnessed a sharp decline in demand and a slump in fish prices due to its dependence on the food service industry. It is important to quantitatively assess those fish species affected most and the extent of the pandemic's impact on them, to take specific countermeasures. We propose a time-series analysis as an alternative to the current practice of using ad hoc year-on-year comparisons. Although the pandemic makes it difficult to construct a counterfactual approach due to the lack of an appropriate control group, we use time-series forecasting to simulate normal conditions using pre-pandemic data. In Tokyo, the unit price of fish species that were negatively impacted by the food services industry dropped by 12.65% to 14.64%, and by 26.08% to 28.22% after the declaration of a state of emergency. Seasonality, short weekly cycles, and short-term market trends are factors that affect the price of fish. Species-specific impact estimates related to the COVID-19 pandemic can allow policymakers to implement recovery measures in a more targeted and effective manner. The results of our analysis can increase fishers' and policymakers' awareness of the usefulness of economic analyses and incentivize them to release data to establish a system to accumulate and analyze data strategically for urgent and appropriate interventions in the fisheries industry.