Features of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding and factors affecting the re-bleeding risk

The risk of re-bleeding in upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a major complication that can be mortal. In this study, we aimed to determine the factors that can predict the risk of re-bleeding in UGIB patients.

We retrospectively screened UGIB patients admitted in adult intensive care. Along with age and gender, complaints of admission, vital signs, comorbidities, laboratory findings, medications, endoscopy status, and re-bleeding status were recorded. According to these findings, Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS65 scores of the patients were calculated. All statistical tests were performed with the Predictive Analytics Software (PASW®, version 18, SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL).

A total of 241 patients were included in the study. Mean age of patients was 57.58±19.31, years and 176 (73.0%) of them were male. A total of 117 (48.5%) patients were Helicobacter pylori positive and re-bleeding occurred in 77 (32.0%) patients. Sclerotherapy was applied in 103 (42.7%) patients, while 5 (2.1%) underwent electrocoagulation, and 4 (1.7%) underwent hemoclips. There was a significant difference between patients with and without endoscopic intervention for re-bleeding (p<0.001). Hematocrit, urea values, Glasgow-Blatchford, and AIMS65 scores were statistically significant different between the groups with and without re-bleeding (p=<0.001, <0.001, <0.001, and 0.008, respectively). In the ROC analysis of Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS65 scoring systems area, under the curve values were 0.700 (p=<0.001, 95% CI: 0.626-0.775), and 0.557 (p=0.194, CI 95%: 0.469-0.645), respectively. Mortality rate was 2.1% (n=5) among study population.

Hematocrit and urea values seem beneficial among studied laboratory values, however, Glasgow-Blatchford scoring system performed better than AIMS65 in the prediction of re-bleeding risk in UGIB. The authors concluded that more specific predictive markers may be useful for clinicians.