Modeling the determinant of time to age at first marriage among women in Ethiopia using Cox models with mixed effects

Time to age at first marriage of women is the duration of time until the age at which they started living with their first partner. Time to age at first marriage is widely considered a proxy indicator for the age at which women begin to be exposed to the risks inherent in sexual activity. The purpose is to model the determinant of time to age at first marriage among women in Ethiopia using Cox models with mixed effects.

The 2016 Ethiopian Demography and Health survey sample was selected using a two-stage cluster design. The data set in this study were obtained from the Demography and Health survey conducted in Ethiopia in 2016. In this study, we used Cox models with mixed effects.

Of all 15,683 women aged 15-49 years, 11,405 (72.72%) were married with the median and mean age at first marriage 17 years and 18 years, respectively. Cox frailty survival model showed that residence, educational level, occupation, work status of women& head education level of households were the most significant factors whereas religion, access to media and wealth index of a household of women were not significant factors at 5% level of significance. The significant clustering effect showed that heterogeneity among the regions on age at first marriage was present.

The present study determined the duration of time until the age at first marriage and indicated relevant solutions for marriage-related problems of women aged 15-49 years in Ethiopia. Women residing in rural area of Ethiopia and had lower education level were married earlier. Therefore, programs to reduce the high rate of early marriage in Ethiopia should give attention to women education and women residing in rural area.