A Novel Machine Learning Predictive Tool Assessing Outpatient or Inpatient Designation for Medicare Patients
David Kugelman1, Shengnan Huang1, Greg Teo1
1New York University Langone Orthopaedic Hospital, New York, NY, USA.
Background:
Removal of total joint arthroplasty from the inpatient-only list has created significant confusion regarding which patients qualify for an inpatient designation. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a novel predictive tool for assessing who will be an outpatient vs inpatient after total knee arthroplasty (TKA).
Methods:
A cohort of Medicare patients undergoing primary TKA between January 2018 and September 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Baseline demographics and patient characteristics were obtained, and their distributions for outpatient (less than 2 midnights) and inpatient stay were assessed. Subsequently, a XGBoost machine learning model was trained using 80% of the TKA patients, and the remaining 20% of patients were involved in testing the model's performance in terms of accuracy and the average area under the receive operating characteristic curve.
Results:
Eight hundred ninety-nine Medicare patients underwent TKA at our institution between January 2018 and September 2019. Of which, 625 patients had outpatients stays, and 274 qualified for inpatient designation. Significant associations were demonstrated between inpatient visits and the following factors: higher body mass index, increased age, better functional scores, multidimensional fatigue inventory, Charlson Comorbidity Index, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, female gender, cardiac history, and the Revised Cardiac Risk Index. The XGBoost model for predicting an inpatient or outpatient stay was 63.3% accurate, with area under the receive operating characteristic curve of 68.8%.
Conclusions:
Using readily available key baseline characteristics, functional scores, and comorbidities, this machine-learning model accurately predicts the probability of an "outpatient" vs "inpatient" stay after TKA in the Medicare population. body mass index, age, VR12 functional scores, and multidimensional fatigue inventory scores had the highest influence on this predictive model.
