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A Literature Review of Pandemics and Development: the Long-Term Perspective
Beniamino Callegari1,2, Christophe Feder3,4
1Oslo New University College, Oslo, Norway.
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change
|February 2, 2022
Summary
Pandemics significantly impact long-term economic development by affecting labor, human capital, and potentially fostering innovation. Without equitable redistribution, they exacerbate income inequality and poverty.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Economic History
- Public Health
Background:
- Pandemics, historically studied by economists, gained renewed focus with COVID-19.
- Previous research explored pandemics' economic consequences, with varying interest over time.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review and synthesize current knowledge on the long-term economic development effects of pandemics.
- To analyze the multifaceted impacts across economic inputs, human capital, and innovation.
Main Methods:
- Literature review of economic and historical debates on pandemics.
- Analysis of pandemic effects on workforce, human capital, investment, savings, and innovation.
- Examination of distributional consequences and income inequality.
Main Results:
- Pandemics reduce workforce and human capital, with mixed effects on investment and savings.
- Potential for innovation and knowledge growth exists, contingent on institutional changes.
- Pandemics tend to increase income inequality and worsen poverty traps without redistribution.
- Effects are asymmetric across time, space, sectors, and households.
Conclusions:
- Research should integrate meta-analysis to address the complexity of pandemic impacts.
- Policymakers should prioritize adaptive learning and innovation capabilities over rigid protocols.
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