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Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting Propensity Score using the Military Health System Data Repository and National Death Index
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Slowdown in Mortality Improvement in the Past Decade: A US/UK Comparison
Michael J Murphy1,2, Emily M D Grundy3,4
1Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Summary
Mortality improvement slowed in the US and UK during the early 2000s. Current explanations, like opioid use or austerity, appear insufficient to explain this trend, necessitating further research.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- A slowdown in mortality improvement was observed in the United States, United Kingdom, and other developed nations in the first decade of the 21st century.
- Previous studies have proposed various explanations for this demographic shift.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the causes of the mortality improvement slowdown in the early 21st century.
- To critically evaluate existing explanations for this trend in the US, UK, and comparator countries.
Main Methods:
- Utilized change-point analysis on Human Mortality Database and Global Burden of Disease data to identify shifts in national mortality trends.
- Employed linear spline models for subnational analysis, incorporating UK national statistics.
- Reviewed methodological assumptions and the impact of different mortality estimation techniques.
Main Results:
- Confirmed a significant slowdown in mortality improvement during the early 21st century across the studied nations.
- Found that commonly cited explanations, such as opioid use (US) or austerity measures (UK), do not adequately account for the observed slowdown.
Conclusions:
- The proposed explanations for the mortality slowdown are insufficient.
- Further research is required to explore longer-term life course and cohort influences on mortality trends.
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