Prenatal climate shocks and adult height in developing countries. Evidence from Japan (1872-1917)

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Economic History
• Anthropometry

Background:

• Developing nations face challenges from climate shocks and economic instability.
• Historical data can reveal long-term biological and welfare impacts.
• Understanding pre-industrial climate effects is crucial for current policy.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the biological and welfare implications of short-run climate shocks and economic fluctuations.
• To analyze the impact of climate anomalies and business cycles on height and height dispersion.
• To assess the long-term consequences for developing countries.

Main Methods:

• Utilized unique Japanese economic, climatic, and anthropometric data (1872-1917).
• Estimated the impact of yearly/monthly regional climate anomalies and nationwide business cycle reversals.
• Analyzed effects on average height and height dispersion of conscripts.

Main Results:

• Climate anomalies during gestation and early infancy decreased adult height.
• Climate shocks increased height dispersion, signaling greater welfare inequalities.
• Evidence suggests pre-Anthropocene climate shocks had lasting welfare implications.

Conclusions:

• Climate shocks have profound, long-lasting biological and welfare consequences.
• The poorest populations in developing countries are disproportionately affected.
• Historical climate impacts inform current strategies for climate adaptation and inequality reduction.