Elucidating Pathways Mediating the Relationship Between Male Sex and COVID-19 Severity

To examine associations between male sex and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity, severe COVID-19 disease, and death in a single-site cohort, and assess whether male sex impacts risk for severe COVID-19 disease through socioeconomic status (SES), comorbidities, or inflammation.

We conducted a retrospective cohort study with data collected from University of Washington Medicine EMR from March 1 to September 29, 2020. All persons, regardless of age, were included if they had a conclusive diagnostic COVID-19 PCR test result. Our exposure was sex assigned at birth. We used Poisson regression to assess associations between sex and COVID-19 test positivity, disease severity and COVID-19 related death, and linear regression to compare viral cycle threshold at the first positive test. We conducted mediation analyses to assess interventional indirect effects of male sex on severe COVID-19 risk through socioeconomic status (SES, based on area deprivation and insurance type), comorbidities, and inflammation status. Models controlled for age and race/ethnicity.

Of 32,919 males and 34,733 females included, 1469 (4.5%) and 1372 (4.0%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, respectively. Males were 14% more likely to test positive (RR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.06-1.23), had 80% higher risk for severe COVID-19 disease (RR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.39-2.33) and had 58% higher risk for death (RR = 1.58; 95% CI: 1.10-2.26) compared to females after adjusting for age and race/ethnicity. Mediation analyses indicated non-significant interventional indirect effects of male sex on severe COVID-19 disease through elevated inflammatory markers, SES and comorbidities, but the greatest effect was through the inflammation pathway.

Males appear to be at higher risk at all steps of the continuum of COVID-19 illness. The strongest mediating signal, albeit non-significant, is with inflammatory pathways. Further elucidation of causal pathways linking sex and COVID-19 severity is needed in larger cohorts.