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ADSC-sheet Transplantation to Prevent Stricture after Extended Esophageal Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection
Published on: February 10, 2017
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A reliable nomogram model for predicting esophageal stricture after endoscopic submucosal dissection
Guodong Yang1, Zhao Mu1, Ke Pu1
1Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Sichuan, China.
Medicine
|February 4, 2022
Summary
Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for esophageal cancer can lead to strictures. A new nomogram model identifies age, high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, large mucosal defects, and cancer type as key risk factors for predicting esophageal stricture post-ESD.
Area of Science:
- Gastroenterology
- Oncology
- Surgical Innovation
Background:
- Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is a primary treatment for early esophageal cancer.
- Esophageal stricture is a significant complication following ESD.
- Predictive tools are needed to manage post-ESD esophageal stricture risk.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify independent risk factors for esophageal stricture after ESD.
- To develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting esophageal stricture risk.
- To improve clinical management and reduce stricture incidence.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 159 patients undergoing esophageal ESD.
- Multivariate analysis to determine independent risk factors.
- Construction and internal validation of a predictive nomogram model.
Main Results:
- Four independent risk factors identified: age > 60 years, high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, mucosal defect > 1/2, and early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.
- The nomogram demonstrated good predictive performance (AUC=0.889) with high sensitivity (80%) and specificity (91.28%).
- Internal cross-validation confirmed good calibration between predicted and observed values.
Conclusions:
- The developed nomogram accurately predicts esophageal stricture risk post-ESD.
- This tool can aid in reducing or preventing esophageal stricture occurrence.
- Further external and prospective validation is recommended for broader clinical application.
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