Radioactivity in Future Phosphogypsum: New predictions based on estimates of 'Peak P' and rock phosphate resources

Global food supplies currently depend on producing inorganic P fertilisers from a finite reserve of rock phosphate (RP). P fertilisers are themselves significant pollutants but their production from RP also leaves a phosphogypsum (PG) by-product that is sufficiently radioactive that its reuse is restricted. PG is mostly accumulated in open 'stacks' that make up a significant proportion of all Technologically Enhanced Naturally-Occurring Radioactive Material (TENORM) waste. Using lower and upper estimates of current RP reserves, historic production, and Hubbert's logistic function-based 'peak theory', lower and upper boundaries for possible RP production were predicted to the year 2100. The 'low' boundary scenario had a production peak of c.350 Mt/a RP in c.2050 followed by a steep decline. The 'high' boundary scenario had a production peak of c.1200 Mt/a RP in about 2090. Future trends in P demand for food production were used to predict a possible, demand-driven, RP production scenario until 2100 which peaked at a demand of c.620 Mt/a RP and was within possible production boundaries. An RP:P ratio of 5.62:1 and PG:P fertiliser ratio of 4:1 was used to calculate that this predicted demand-driven scenario would ultimately produce nearly 350 Mt/a of PG and a cumulative total of c.30 Gt by 2100. Average PG activity concentrations of ²²⁶Ra (650 Bq/kg), ²¹⁰Po (300 Bq/kg) and ²³⁰Th (100 Bq/kg) give a total of c.30 PBq radioactivity in this by-product. Humanity is faced with a phosphorus dilemma - if the low production scenario unfolds it threatens food security but if predicted demand for P is met from RP the environmental challenges arising from P fertiliser use will be profound and exacerbated by a significant radioactive waste challenge. The estimates reported here show that studies of environmental radioactivity have a role to play in debates about P resources and global food security.