Hitting where it hurts most: COVID-19 and low-income urban college students

Using data from a rich online student survey collected at an urban college during the summer of 2020, I estimate the causal impact of the pandemic on students' current and expected outcomes. I find that the COVID-19 disruptions on students' lives were significant. Because of the pandemic, between 14% and 34% of the students considered dropping a class during spring 2020, 30% modified their graduation plans, and the freshman fall retention rate dropped by 26%. The pandemic also deprived 39% of the students of their jobs and reduced the earnings of 35% and the expected household income of 64%. The economic consequences are grimmer for Pell recipients as they were 20% more likely to lose a job due to the pandemic and 17% more likely to experience earning losses than never Pell recipients. Despite being 36% more likely to receive financial support from the CARES Act than never Pell recipients, Pell recipients were 65% more likely to have faced food and shelter insecurity, and 15% more likely to expect lower annual household income. In contrast with economic outcomes, the only educational differential effect between the two groups is Pell recipients' 41% greater likelihood to consider dropping a course mostly because of concerns that their grade would jeopardize their financial assistance. Other vulnerable students, such as first-generation students and transfer students, were relatively harder hit. To the extent that they seem to rely less on financial aid and more on income from wage and salary jobs, both their educational and employment outcomes were more negatively impacted by the pandemic relative to students whose parents also attended college or those who began college as freshmen.