Population density impact on COVID-19 mortality rate: A multifractal analysis using French data

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Spatial Analysis

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to understand factors influencing infectious disease transmission.
• The relationship between population density and the spread of highly contagious diseases like COVID-19 is a subject of ongoing debate.
• Existing studies lack consensus on how population density affects disease outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impact of population density on COVID-19 mortality in France.
• To evaluate a novel population-weighted density measure against traditional density metrics.
• To explore the utility of multifractal analysis in understanding disease-environment relationships.

Main Methods:

• Utilized COVID-19 data from France.
• Introduced and applied a population-weighted density measure.
• Employed multifractal analysis to characterize population spatial distributions.
• Compared the novel density measure with standard density and population predictors.

Main Results:

• The population-weighted density measure demonstrated a stronger correlation with COVID-19 deaths compared to the commonly used density measure.
• The novel measure proved competitive with established predictors like total population.
• Multifractal analysis provided insights into the complex relationship between population distribution and mortality rates.

Conclusions:

• Population density, particularly when weighted by population, is a critical factor in COVID-19 mortality.
• The developed density metric offers a more accurate approach to assessing disease risk in diverse spatial contexts.
• Further research using advanced spatial analysis can elucidate disease dynamics in relation to population structures.