COVID-19 economic impact payments and opioid overdose deaths

Given the global economic recessions mediated by the COVID-19 pandemic and that many countries have implemented direct income support programs, we investigated the timing of the COVID-19 economic impact payments and opioid overdose deaths.

A longitudinal, observational study design that included data from the Ohio Department of Health was utilized. Statistical change point analyses were conducted to identify significant changes in weekly number of opioid overdose deaths from January 1 of 2018 to August 1 of 2020. Additional analyses including difference-in-difference, time series tests, interrupted time series regression analysis and Granger causality test were performed.

A single change point was identified and occurred at week 16, 2020. For 2020, the median opioid overdose deaths numbers for weeks 1-16 and weeks 17-32 were 68.5 and 101, respectively. The opioid overdose deaths numbers from weeks 17-32 of 2020 were significantly higher than those in weeks 1-16 of 2020 and those in 2018 and 2019 (before and after week 16). The interrupted time series regression analysis indicated more than 203 deaths weekly for weeks 17-32 of 2020 compared to all other weeks. The result of the Granger causality test found that the identified change point (week 16 of 2020) directly influenced the increase in opioid overdose deaths in weeks 17-32 of 2020.

The identified change point may refer to the timing of many factors, not only the economic payments and further research is warranted to investigate the potential relationship between the COVID-19 economic impact payments and overdose deaths.