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Short-term prediction of secondary progression in a sliding window: A test of a predicting algorithm in a validation

B Skoog1, J Link2, H Tedeholm1

  • 1University of Gothenburg, the Sahlgrenska Academy, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, Section of Clinical Neuroscience and Rehabilitation, Sweden.

Multiple Sclerosis Journal - Experimental, Translational and Clinical
|February 11, 2022
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

The Multiple Sclerosis Prediction Score (MSPS) accurately predicts secondary progression risk in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients. Calibration enhances its generalizability across different cohorts.

Area of Science:

  • Neurology
  • Clinical Epidemiology

Background:

  • The Multiple Sclerosis Prediction Score (MSPS) is a tool to estimate individual risk of secondary progression (SP) in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS).
  • Accurate prediction of SP is crucial for managing MS progression and treatment strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To internally verify the MSPS algorithm using the Gothenburg Incidence Cohort (GIC).
  • To externally validate the MSPS algorithm in the independent Uppsala MS cohort (UMS).

Main Methods:

  • Patients with relapsing-remitting MS were followed for up to 25 years from their second relapse.
  • A goodness-of-fit test and diagnostic plots were used to compare predicted versus observed transitions to SP.
  • The MSPS algorithm was calibrated using multiplicative factors specific to each cohort.

Main Results:

  • The median time to SP was 11.5 years in the GIC and 15 years in the UMS.
  • Calibrated MSPS showed a good fit between expected and observed outcomes in the UMS (chi-square p=0.61).
  • Calibration factors were 0.829 for GIC and 0.599 for UMS.

Conclusions:

  • The MSPS demonstrates clinically relevant generalizability to new multiple sclerosis cohorts.
  • Calibration of the MSPS to the specific SP incidence of a cohort is essential for its reliable application.
Keywords:
Epidemiologymultiple sclerosisoutcome measurementprogressiverelapsing/remitting

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