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Updated: Oct 4, 2025

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Estimating non-communicable disease treatment costs using probability-based cost estimation.

Claire R Botha1, Sten H Vermund2

  • 1Health Systems Strengthening, The Aurum Institute, South Africa.

Global Health Action
|February 11, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Estimating non-communicable disease (NCD) treatment costs in data-poor settings like South Africa is challenging. This study introduces a probability-based cost estimation model to improve resource allocation for NCD services.

Keywords:
Probability-based cost estimationSouth Africahealthcare costlow-and-middle income countriesnon-communicable diseases

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Area of Science:

  • Health Economics
  • Public Health
  • Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)

Background:

  • Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause 70% of global premature deaths, with Sub-Saharan Africa facing a significant rise.
  • Increased NCDs strain limited public health finances, necessitating accurate cost estimation for treatment services.
  • Traditional cost estimation methods require extensive data, which is often unavailable in low- and middle-income countries.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore and apply probability-based cost estimation for NCD treatment services in South Africa.
  • To address data limitations in estimating healthcare resource needs for NCDs.
  • To develop a more efficient method for resource allocation in data-poor environments.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a combined approach of deterministic and probability-based cost estimation.
  • Applied the model to estimate the cost of delivering NCD treatment services at the primary healthcare facility level.
  • Probability-based estimation calculates a mean cost applied to the population, overcoming the need for condition-specific quantities.

Main Results:

  • Developed a hybrid cost estimation model integrating deterministic and probabilistic elements.
  • Demonstrated a viable method for estimating NCD treatment costs in data-scarce settings.
  • The model eliminates the need for precise quantity data for each condition, simplifying estimation.

Conclusions:

  • Probability-based cost estimation offers a practical solution for resource allocation in data-poor health systems.
  • This methodology enhances the accuracy of estimating NCD treatment costs.
  • The study provides a framework for improving financial planning for NCD services in similar contexts.