Risk assessment and management framework for rapidly spreading species in a Kashmir Himalayan Ramsar site

In view of huge ecological impacts and exorbitantly high economic costs of biological invasions, the risk assessment for timely prediction of potential invaders and their effective management assumes central importance, yet having been little addressed. Hence, we did the risk analysis of 39 plant species, including both alien and fast-spreading native species, in Hokera wetland, an important Ramsar site in Kashmir Himalaya, using the post-border Australian Weed Risk Management (AWRM) framework. Based on the AWRM scores, we listed these species into different categories, such as alert, destroy infestation, contain spread, manage weed, manage sites and monitor, with management implications. Out of the eight decisions created for Hokera wetland, alien Alternanthera philoxeroides was identified as 'alert species', while Typha angustifolia, Typha latifolia, Phragmites australis, Sparganium ramosum and Myriophyllum aquaticum were placed under the 'manage weed' category of the management priorities. To check the predictability and reliability of the AWRM scheme, we developed the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve that yielded a positive diagonal value of above 0.5, with 88.6% and 83.1% area under the curve for comparative weed risk (CWR) score and the feasibility of coordinated control (FOC) score, respectively. The outcomes of the ROC analysis were compared with the results of the WRM evaluation of other regions across the globe. Our results indicate that the risk assessment using the AWRM model is quite efficient at discriminating and flagging the most troublesome plant species and offsetting their impacts on native biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in wetland ecosystems. Given the growing threat of biological invasions in the protected areas, we recommend an integrated and strategic approach, well informed by the data on the species biology and ecology, in the form of the AWRM management system to effectively deal with the alarmingly spreading species.