How might magnetic secular variation impact avian philopatry?

A tendency to return to the natal/breeding site, 'philopatry', is widespread amongst migratory birds. It has been suggested that a magnetic 'map' could underpin such movements, though it is unclear how a magnetic map might be impacted by gradual drift in the Earth's magnetic field ('secular variation'). Here, using the International Geomagnetic Reference Field, we quantified how secular variation translates to movement in the implied positions at which combinations of different magnetic cues (inclination, declination and intensity) intersect, noting that the magnitude of such movements is determined by the magnitude of the movements of each of the two isolines, and the angle between their movement vectors. We propose that magnetic parameters varying in a near-parallel arrangement are unlikely to be used as a bi-coordinate map during philopatry, but that birds could use near-orthogonal magnetic gradient cues as a bi-coordinate map if augmented with navigation using more local cues. We further suggest that uni-coordinate magnetic information could also provide a philopatry mechanism that is substantially less impacted by secular variation than a bi-coordinate 'map'. We propose that between-year shifts in the position of magnetic coordinates might provide a priori predictions for changes in the breeding sites of migratory birds.