Mapping the prevalence of severe acute malnutrition in Papua, Indonesia by using geostatistical models
Paul Jasper1, Warren C Jochem2, Emma Lambert-Porter3
1Oxford Policy Management Limited, Level 3, Clarendon House, 52 Cornmarket Street, Oxford, OX1 3HJ, UK.
Insights
Geospatial modeling mapped severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in Papua, Indonesia, revealing significant spatial variation and high prevalence in remote areas. This approach enhances malnutrition risk assessment where data is scarce, guiding targeted interventions for children under 2.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Geospatial Science
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) affects millions of children globally, with current estimates relying on infrequent, aggregated, and costly household surveys.
- Geospatial modeling offers a potential solution to overcome limitations of traditional surveys by integrating geo-located data for localized risk prediction.
Purpose of the Study:
- To map the prevalence and spatial distribution of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in children under 2 years old in Papua, Indonesia.
- To demonstrate the utility of geospatial modeling for estimating malnutrition risk in areas with limited data.
Main Methods:
- Bayesian geostatistical modeling was employed using cluster-level program evaluation data from 123 primary sampling units.
- Publicly available geospatial data layers were integrated to predict SAM at a 1x1 km spatial resolution.
Main Results:
- Six geospatial covariates, primarily related to remoteness and inaccessibility, were significant predictors of SAM in Papua.
- An estimated 15,000 children under 2 years old had SAM in late 2018, with substantial spatial variation.
- Over 5% of children under 2 in most areas of Papua had SAM, with three districts exceeding 15% prevalence.
Conclusions:
- Spatially detailed malnutrition data are crucial for guiding efficient intervention strategies, especially in low-income countries with data scarcity.
- Geospatial mapping provides valuable insights for both surveyed and non-surveyed regions, improving the monitoring of populations at risk.
- This methodology can enhance timely estimation and monitoring of malnutrition, supporting global efforts to eradicate hunger.
Background:
Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is the most life-threatening form of malnutrition, and in 2019, approximately 14.3 million children under the age of 5 were considered to have SAM. The prevalence of child malnutrition is recorded through large-scale household surveys run at multi-year intervals. However, these surveys are expensive, yield estimates with high levels of aggregation, are run over large time intervals, and may show gaps in area coverage. Geospatial modelling approaches could address some of these challenges by combining geo-located survey data with geospatial data to produce mapped estimates that predict malnutrition risk in both surveyed and non-surveyed areas.
Methods:
A secondary analysis of cluster-level program evaluation data (n = 123 primary sampling units) was performed to map severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in Papuan children under 2 years (0-23 months) of age with a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km in Papua, Indonesia. The approach used Bayesian geostatistical modelling techniques and publicly available geospatial data layers.
Results:
In Papua, Indonesia, SAM was predicted in geostatistical models by using six geospatial covariates related primarily to conditions of remoteness and inaccessibility. The predicted 1-km spatial resolution maps of SAM showed substantial spatial variation across the province. By combining the predicted rates of SAM with estimates of the population under 2 years of age, the prevalence of SAM in late 2018 was estimated to be around 15,000 children (95% CI 10,209-26,252). Further tests of the predicted levels suggested that in most areas of Papua, more than 5% of Papuan children under 2 years of age had SAM, while three districts likely had more than 15% of children with SAM.
Conclusions:
Eradication of hunger and malnutrition remains a key development goal, and more spatially detailed data can guide efficient intervention strategies. The application of additional household survey datasets in geostatistical models is one way to improve the monitoring and timely estimation of populations at risk of malnutrition. Importantly, geospatial mapping can yield insights for both surveyed and non-surveyed areas and can be applied in low-income country contexts where data is scarce and data collection is expensive or regions are inaccessible.
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