Development of a Nomogram for Predicting Very Low Bone Mineral Density (T-Scores <-3) in the Chinese Population

Fragility fractures, the most serious complication of osteoporosis, affect life quality and increase medical expenses and economic burden. Strategies to identify populations with very low bone mineral density (T-scores <-3), indicating very high fracture risk according to the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists/American College of Endocrinology (AACE/ACE), are necessary to achieve acceptable fracture risk levels. In this study, the characteristics of persons with T-scores <-3 were analyzed in the Chinese population to identify risk factors and develop a nomogram for very low bone mineral density (T-scores <-3) identification.

We conducted a cross-sectional study using the datasets of the Health Improvement Program of Bone (HOPE), with 602 men aged ≥50 years and 482 postmenopausal women. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Data on clinical risk factors, including age, sex, weight, height, previous fracture, parental hip fracture history, smoking, alcohol intake >3 units/day, glucocorticoid use, rheumatoid arthritis, and secondary osteoporosis were collected. A multivariate logistic regression to evaluate the relationship between the clinical risk factors and very low BMD (T-scores <-3) was conducted. Parameter estimates of the final model were then used to construct a nomogram.

Sixty-three of 1084 participants (5.8%) had BMD T-score <-3. In multivariable regression analysis, age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.068, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.037-1.099) and weight (OR = 0.863, 95% CI: 0.830-0.897) were significant factors that were associated with very low BMD (T-scores <-3). These variables were the factors considered in developing the nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the model was 0.861. The cut-off value of the ROC curve was 0.080.

The nomogram can effectively assist clinicians to identify persons with very low BMD (T-scores <-3) and very high fracture risk in the Chinese population.