Dynamical landscape and multistability of a climate model
Georgios Margazoglou1,2, Tobias Grafke3, Alessandro Laio4
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
Proceedings. Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
|February 14, 2022
Summary
Researchers identified a new stable climate state using two data analysis methods. This discovery enhances our understanding of Earth's climate dynamics and transitions between different climate states.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Data Science
- Complex Systems
Background:
- Earth's climate system exhibits multistability, with recognized warm and snowball states.
- Understanding transitions between these stable states is crucial for climate modeling.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify stable climate states and analyze their interplay using independent data analysis methodologies.
- To investigate transition trajectories and times between identified climate states.
- To characterize the data landscape of climate model simulations in an unsupervised manner.
Main Methods:
- Application of quasi-potential theory to analyze climate state likelihood and transition pathways.
- Utilizing manifold learning techniques from data science for agnostic identification of climate states and basin boundaries.
- Employing the PLASIM intermediate complexity climate model for simulations.
Main Results:
- Remarkable agreement between the two independent data analysis approaches.
- Identification of a third intermediate stable climate state, in addition to the known warm and snowball Earth states.
- Revealed significant influence of ocean heat transport and hydrological cycle feedbacks on the climate's dynamical landscape.
Conclusions:
- The study confirms the existence of multistable climate states and introduces a novel intermediate state.
- Combined analytical approaches provide robust insights into climate dynamics and landscape topography.
- Ocean heat transport and hydrological cycle feedbacks critically shape Earth's climate system dynamics.
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