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Modelling song popularity as a contagious process.

Dora P Rosati1,2,3, Matthew H Woolhouse2,3, Benjamin M Bolker1,4

  • 1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1.

Proceedings. Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
|February 14, 2022
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Popular song downloads follow infectious disease patterns, suggesting epidemic models can explain music's spread. This research uses the susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model to analyze song popularity and transmission dynamics.

Keywords:
contagious processesinfectious diseasemathematical epidemiologysong downloadssong popularitysusceptible–infectious–recovered model

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Musicology
  • Computational Social Science

Background:

  • Popular songs are often described as 'viral' or 'contagious'.
  • The spread of song preferences shares similarities with the transmission of infectious diseases.
  • Understanding the mechanisms behind song popularity is crucial in the music industry.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether infectious disease transmission models can explain the spread of song preferences.
  • To compare the effectiveness of the susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with a phenomenological spline model in fitting song download data.
  • To explore genre-specific differences in song popularity dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of song download data from MixRadio (Great Britain, 2007-2014).
  • Comparison of the standard susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model against a spline model for fitting download time series.
  • Fitting both models to simulated epidemic time series generated by the SIR model.

Main Results:

  • The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model provided a better fit to song download time series compared to the spline model.
  • The SIR model's superior performance in fitting song downloads mirrored its performance in fitting simulated epidemic data.
  • Estimated SIR parameters suggested faster preference spread for Electronica music, potentially due to a more connected 'susceptible community'.

Conclusions:

  • The social processes driving song popularity are analogous to infectious disease transmission.
  • Epidemic models like SIR offer valuable insights into the dynamics of music consumption and viral trends.
  • Genre-specific analysis using SIR parameters reveals distinct patterns in music preference spread.