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Do COVID-19 containment measures work? Evidence from Switzerland
Regina Pleninger1, Sina Streicher1, Jan-Egbert Sturm1,2
1KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Leonhardstrasse 21, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics
|February 14, 2022
Summary
Stringent containment measures significantly reduced COVID-19 infections and altered public behavior in Switzerland. Business closures and gathering restrictions proved most effective in controlling virus spread.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Policy
- Behavioral Economics
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated rapid implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).
- Understanding the complex interactions between NPIs, public behavior, and disease transmission is crucial for effective pandemic response.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the dynamic interplay between NPI stringency, human behavior, and COVID-19 spread in Switzerland.
- To identify the most effective NPIs for controlling viral transmission at a sub-national level.
Main Methods:
- Collection of sub-national data to construct indices for NPI stringency.
- Application of a vector autoregressive model with structural impulse responses to analyze feedback effects.
- Utilizing debit card transactions as a proxy for population behavioral changes.
Main Results:
- Increased NPI stringency significantly reduced weekly COVID-19 infections and debit card transactions.
- Business closures, work-from-home recommendations, and gathering restrictions were particularly effective NPIs.
- A notable voluntary reduction in debit card transactions occurred in response to infection surges.
Conclusions:
- NPIs are effective tools for mitigating COVID-19 spread and influencing public behavior.
- Targeted NPIs, such as business closures and gathering restrictions, offer significant public health benefits.
- Public behavior, reflected in transaction data, responds dynamically to infection dynamics and policy interventions.
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