Variation in Fetal Weight Percentile Estimates

Weight percentiles are generally reported without any indication of error. This variation can lead a fetus being mistakenly classified erroneously as having intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) or macrosomia. The goal of this study was to compare estimated weight percentiles with the actual observed weight percentile for each gestational age in a large cohort of fetuses being scanned in our institution.

After IRB approval the radiology information system data base was retrospectively searched for all obstetrical US reports obtained during the late second and third trimesters from July 1, 2014, until July 1, 2020. Demographic information, fetal weight, and weight percentile information were obtained from these reports. Quantile-quantile plots were created for all gestational ages and all ethnicities.

Our study included 6259 ultrasounds in 4060 patients. Mean maternal age of the total group was 31.68 years (ranging 15-53 years). When all subjects were considered, the median values in our QQ plots approximated the line of identity. However, there was considerable variation for a given estimate, implying that estimated fetal weight percentiles are only very rough predictors of the actual percentile.

Estimated fetal weight percentiles are only very rough predictors of the actual percentile. We therefore suggest that estimates of the weight percentile should be reported along with an estimate of the expected variation. Recognition of variations in weight percentile should be considered in the greater clinical context, and could potentially prevent misdiagnosis of growth restriction and macrosomia as well as the subsequent overutilization of resources, unnecessary interventions, and maternal stress.