A program for training and feedback about probability estimation for physicians

Medical decisions are rarely made under conditions of complete certainty. In the past decade there has been a rapid growth of interest in formal methods for optimizing medical decisions under uncertainty. Application of decision-analytic methods requires physicians to make probability estimates about clinical events for which extensive data are not available. This paper describes a computer program to train physicians to be better probability estimators: to make probability estimates that are numerically meaningful for use in formal decision analyses. It is designed to be a stand-alone application requiring about 2 hours of physician time. Use requires an IBM-PC or compatible microcomputer with graphics adaptor and monitor, and 8087 coprocessor.