Mortality risk associated with greenness, air pollution, and physical activity in a representative U.S. cohort

Several cohort studies suggest greenness is associated with decreased mortality risk. Potential confounding by or interactions between physical activity and air pollution remains unclear. This study evaluates associations of greenness, air pollution, and physical activity with mortality risk and investigates confounding and effect modification across these key risk factors. National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data covering 1997-2014 were linked to the National Death Index to generate a cohort of 403,748 individuals with 39,528 deaths. Greenness, represented by census-tract Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the seasonal period of May-October, was averaged over the years 2003-2016. Air pollution was estimated by census-tract level PM_2.5 concentrations from 1999 to 2015. Cox Proportional Hazard Models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for differences in greenness, air pollution, and physical activity. Alternative models that evaluated potential confounding and stratified models that evaluated effect modification were examined. Mortality risks were associated with PM_2.5 (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.19 per 10 μg/m³) and physical inactivity (1.49, 1.44-1.54 relative to sufficiently active), but not with greenness (1.01, 0.99-1.03 per IQR). The PM_2.5-mortality association was mitigated at high levels of greenness (1.05, 0.91-1.22). There was no strong evidence of confounding between air pollution, physical activity, and greenness. However, stratified analysis suggested effect modification for PM_2.5 and NDVI by physical activity. A significant protective greenness-mortality association was observed for only highly active individuals (0.91, 0.86-0.96). Also, relatively high PM_2.5-mortality HRs were observed for more physically active individuals (1.25, 1.12-1.40). PM_2.5 air pollution and physical inactivity are robustly associated with mortality risk. Greenness may be most beneficial and air pollution relatively harmful to highly active individuals. This analysis provides evidence that, in addition to not smoking, being physically active and living in a clean, green environment contributes to improved health and reduced risk of mortality.